Wow - Another good day for the Withnail betting account! It suddenly occurred to me at the off that Big Zeb was great value at 12-1 so I lumped on! It was never in doubt...and that was after The Insider’s latest banker, Peddlers Cross, came romping home in the Novice Hurdle.

Today could be different though. Thursday at Cheltenham is evidence that this is really a three day Festival stretched over four days. Huge fields and nothing out of the handicap - how can that be? (Normally everyone with a nag is so desperate for a Cheltenham entry that they’ll put their horse in even if it’s forced to carry minimum weight of 10 stone instead of the 8st 4lbs that the handicapper politely suggests).

Anyway, today’s big race is the Stayers’ Hurdle (called the World Hurdle since it replaced the Gold Cup as the “big race on Thursday”) and the odds on favourite is last year’s winner Big Bucks. He looks unbeatable but so far all the odds-on favourites have lost, as they often do at Cheltenham. The Insider says Tidal Bay  to beat Big Bucks and Katchit e/w @ 20/1 (but I suspect that may be a bit sentimental). No bet for me.

The other big race today is the Ryanair Chase, a competitive 2m 5f chase for 5 year olds and up. This race often attracts winners of big races from earlier years that are not quite champion quality anymore. The big gamble is for Poquelin who was my choice. I was looking to back it at 6/1 but it is now 7/2. That means the market is pricing in a 22% probability that Poquelin will win, which in a high class chase with 13 decent runners and no total outsiders doesn’t sound like great value to me. The Insider says Tranquil Sea. I’ve spotted Deep Purple at 25-1. He seems to have the class but broke a blood vessel in the King George on Boxing Day. I might have a small bet on Barbers Shop who will no doubt be the “shrewd” e/w bet of the day for the pros at 6s.

The second race, the 3 mile Pertemps Final Chase, looks like a half decent field. The favourite (or as they say in the trade, the Jolly) is Alfie Sherrin who’s been a rock solid 4/1 shot, suggesting that the market thinks it has a 20% chance of winning. Again, in a 24 runner handicap hurdle at Cheltenham (where they’re all trying) this seems optimistic. So I’ll lay Alfie Sherrin on Betfair and have a few e/w shots; Smokin Aces and Don’t Push It look like decent shouts on paper.

I have nothing for the first , the up and coming Whatever Novices Handicap Chase (The Coach says Hey Big Spender), or the last two (it’s 10/1 bar one in the last which means the bookies have given only one horse more than a 9% chance).

A quiet mention for Marty’s Mission in the fifth race. It looks like a decent 40-1 e/w shot to me :)

Bring Back Three Day Cheltenham....I’m off to chain myself to some railings.

Good luck

Withnail