Sports Day

The Masters Day 1

Thu, 8 Apr 2010 10:50:34 +0100

Today is the start of The Masters, the first and most prestigious of the four ‘Major’ golf tournaments. There are a couple of things about The Masters that give it a special place in the sporting calendar. First, it’s an invitational rather than an Open. And invitations are limited and sought after because it’s a small field with a huge total purse of $7.5 million. But mainly because of the Augusta National golf course which is unquestionably the World’s most revered golf venue. It’s the Binions of Golf. The sight of Tiger Woods chipping in on the 16th in his epic battle against Chris DiMarco in 2005 was a “JFK” moment for sports fans. The Augusta National is also noted for its quirkiness. Very few tickets are sold and they heavily restrict the TV companies’ access to the action. It’s like a drug dealer withholding the supply to keep his customers on the edge. For most of the year the course is unplayable. They dig it up and rebuild it for the next Masters. Fortunately there aren’t many members to complain about this, which is odd as it probably has one of the lowest annual membership fees of any private golf club in America!

For the gambling fraternity the Masters is in the same bracket as Cheltenham, The World Cup and The Ryder Cup for thrilling action. Normally the word is to lay Tiger. But that’s always been the word since Tiger started his prolific winning steak at roughly the age of three. His record in this tournament is miraculous. Four wins since he won it in 1997, his first appearance as a pro (he played as US Amateur Champion in 1995 (a perennial invitee) and is amusingly listed in results as E Woods, and top ten every year other than three since. His record is almost as good as Warren Buffet’s.

This year the story is all about Tiger’s comeback after his lifestyle forced him into a five month leave of absence. Normally Tiger would be around 2/1 ahead of the tournament. This year you can get 11/2, which at face value looks attractive given his record at Augusta, but reflects his potential state of mind. It might be better to see what price he is after the first round.

I’ve been looking for some each way value to sweat in the tournament. Experience counts for a lot around Augusta so my picks are guys who have played here a few times and done well. The Augusta greens make Putting and Chipping the most important stats to concentrate on. My three e/w (top five) picks are:

Steve Stricker @ 6/1
Retief Goosen @ 11/2
Ross Fisher @ 15/1

I’ve laid Tiger at 2/1 to finish in the top 5 and evens to finish in the top 10. But my plan is to buy him back at a better price after a quiet first day maybe?

Good luck
Withnail

Cheltenham Day 4: Gold Cup Day

Thu, 18 Mar 2010 23:56:00 +0000

A break even day yesterday with Copper Bleu paying for the other losers. Wish I’d backed Big Bucks like The Coach told me too...

Maybe I can rectify that decision by backing Kauto Star in the Gold Cup today. The Gold cup is the “Blue Ribband” event of the Festival. It’s not the biggest prize in Chasing, that’s the Grand National which is a handicap. The Gold Cup sees them run off the same weights so is a true test of the Champion three mile chaser.

This race has always been a graveyard for me. I lost most of my year’s grant on Carvill’s Hill in 1992. I never backed Best Mate in the three years that he won it. 2009 was my first big win when Kauto Star romped it to save my week! So I’m hoping for a repeat performance. He’s The Insider’s nap of the week!

The first race of the day is the famous Triumph Hurdle, the four year old hurdlers. These are all very young novice hurdlers and it has produced many future champion horses. However, picking the winner is a nightmare as it often a long price.

The second race is the 28 runner Vincent O’Brien 3 mile handicap hurdle. That’s right, sharpen your pins! I daren’t ask The Insider, it’s below him. Usually best to watch the betting and try and pick the gamble early. Watch the Twitter!

Next up is the Albert Bartlett, a 3 mile novice hurdle. At least they are off level weights, but it’s still one to watch the betting.

The last two races provide more of the same. Watch the Twitter feed for any last minute tips!

Stick with Kauto Star!

Good luck
Withnail

Cheltenham Day 3

Thu, 18 Mar 2010 08:23:44 +0000

Wow - Another good day for the Withnail betting account! It suddenly occurred to me at the off that Big Zeb was great value at 12-1 so I lumped on! It was never in doubt...and that was after The Insider’s latest banker, Peddlers Cross, came romping home in the Novice Hurdle.

Today could be different though. Thursday at Cheltenham is evidence that this is really a three day Festival stretched over four days. Huge fields and nothing out of the handicap - how can that be? (Normally everyone with a nag is so desperate for a Cheltenham entry that they’ll put their horse in even if it’s forced to carry minimum weight of 10 stone instead of the 8st 4lbs that the handicapper politely suggests).

Anyway, today’s big race is the Stayers’ Hurdle (called the World Hurdle since it replaced the Gold Cup as the “big race on Thursday”) and the odds on favourite is last year’s winner Big Bucks. He looks unbeatable but so far all the odds-on favourites have lost, as they often do at Cheltenham. The Insider says Tidal Bay to beat Big Bucks and Katchit e/w @ 20/1 (but I suspect that may be a bit sentimental). No bet for me.

The other big race today is the Ryanair Chase, a competitive 2m 5f chase for 5 year olds and up. This race often attracts winners of big races from earlier years that are not quite champion quality anymore. The big gamble is for Poquelin who was my choice. I was looking to back it at 6/1 but it is now 7/2. That means the market is pricing in a 22% probability that Poquelin will win, which in a high class chase with 13 decent runners and no total outsiders doesn’t sound like great value to me. The Insider says Tranquil Sea. I’ve spotted Deep Purple at 25-1. He seems to have the class but broke a blood vessel in the King George on Boxing Day. I might have a small bet on Barbers Shop who will no doubt be the “shrewd” e/w bet of the day for the pros at 6s.

The second race, the 3 mile Pertemps Final Chase, looks like a half decent field. The favourite (or as they say in the trade, the Jolly) is Alfie Sherrin who’s been a rock solid 4/1 shot, suggesting that the market thinks it has a 20% chance of winning. Again, in a 24 runner handicap hurdle at Cheltenham (where they’re all trying) this seems optimistic. So I’ll lay Alfie Sherrin on Betfair and have a few e/w shots; Smokin Aces and Don’t Push It look like decent shouts on paper.

I have nothing for the first , the up and coming Whatever Novices Handicap Chase (The Coach says Hey Big Spender), or the last two (it’s 10/1 bar one in the last which means the bookies have given only one horse more than a 9% chance).

A quiet mention for Marty’s Mission in the fifth race. It looks like a decent 40-1 e/w shot to me :)

Bring Back Three Day Cheltenham....I’m off to chain myself to some railings.

Good luck
Withnail

Cheltenham Day 2

Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:59:43 +0000

I couldn’t see Binocular winning the Champion Hurdle. That spoiled an otherwise successful day.

Wednesday at Cheltenham is all about the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The Superbowl of two mile chasers, the classy horses. There have been some great champions over the years: Viking Flagship, Moscow Flyer. I particularly remember Remittance Man winning with half my grant on him! This year it seems destined to be the third victory for the current outstanding two mile chaser Master Minded. This is most punters’ banker of the festival and it’s hard to see past him if he makes it all the way round. I’ve heard a few shouts for Kalahari King (The Coach’s tip) but I think that people are looking for value against the strong favourite. I’ll be sticking with Master Minded

One of the punts of the week has been for Long Run in the Royal Sun Alliance Novice Chase (the 3rd). I backed him at 11/4 last week and he’s now in to 15/8. So at least I’m on the right side. But everyone I’ve spoken to thinks that Punchestown is a shoe-in. Long Run is a dodgy jumper but crashing through the hurdles doesn’t seem to affect his ability to power to the line. Punchestown dances over the hurdles like a ballerina but I just fancy Long Run will be too strong.

The first race of the day is a lottery. It’s the Amateur riders’ race and it’s a four mile chase. No idea!

The second race is a great betting race as it’s the 2 mile 5 furlong novice hurdle. It’s full of horses that have avoided the top novice race, the Supreme Novices won by Menorah yesterday (well done Coach!). The Insider “would like to see Peddler’s Cross do well”. Sounds like a tip to me. I’ve already had a tipple on Ghizao. I fancy that there will be a gamble on something in the morning as the betting is wide open for this one.

The same is true for the last three races, The Coral Cup (described by The Insider as a sponsored cavalry charge), a 4yo Novice Handicap Hurdle (go figure) and one of my favourite races, The Bumper. All these races are wide open so I’ll watch the betting and post any “tips” on Twitter

Good luck
Withnail

Looking forward to Cheltenham

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 02:36:47 +0000

For the first time in ages I am approaching Cheltenham having watched a bit of jump racing this year and having studied a bit of form over the past week or so. I also have a few tips from The Insider (who boasts an outstanding Cheltenham track record), The Coach and one or two others.

I have already had a few “ante post” bets, not something I normally like doing because of the risk of not getting to the starting post. But there is so much money on Cheltenham that I’m hoping for some trading opportunities.

Let’s start with the traditional Cheltenham opener, The Supreme Novices Hurdle. Normally this is won by something unheard of that steals 10 lengths coming round the home bend and is not caught by the chasing pack. For that reason it is one of the punters’ favourites, all looking for a long priced winner. As is often the case, last year’s winner (Go Native) and second (Medermit) are favourites for this year’s Champion Hurdle. But all the pre-festival hype has been for Dunguib, the odds-on favourite for this race. Dunguib’s price has steadily shortened over the season as he has impressed every time he has run. The general consensus seems to be that you can put your mortgage on him. But that’s no fun. I fancy Oscar Whisky (12-1) and The Insider has picked Peddler’s Cross (25-1) as a potential each way shot but it might not run in this one (note...running tomorrow instead!).

Next on the opening day is the Arkle Chase, the champion 2 mile novices, next year’s Queen Mother contenders. This is usually a highly competitive race and I always do my money so I will go easy on the betting. The Insider says Sizing Europe to win and Riverside Theatre each way but not for big bets. I think I will lay the favourite, Captain Cee Bee who has not proven his worth since winning the Supreme Novice in 2008 as he was injured for most of last season.

I love the Champion Hurdle, it’s my favourite race and I’ve always done well in it over the years. Big winners have been Morley Street, Royal Gait, Make a Stand and (glory be!!) Istabraq! I worship at the altar of Istabraq…but now that I look back I haven’t won since his third win in 2000 so maybe I should worship somewhere else! The Insider says Go Native and I can see why. Last year’s winner of the opener has won both the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle this year setting him up for a £1 million from a little known online bookie. I wouldn’t deposit too much with them if I were you?! My pick for an each way shout is Khyber Kim. I haven’t had a bet yet but fancy that all the action might be elsewhere and KK might sneak in under the radar at a decent price on the day.

I’m not really that interested in the Cross Country race which leaves the last, the Mares race. I’m going to have to choose between the two runaway market leaders, Voler la Vedette and Quevega, to finish off the Super Fifteen.

Good luck
Withnail